A conditional long/short research watchlist, not a performance record. Reviewed Nov 15, 2026 (ET), ahead of Monday Nov 16. Equity and ETF reference prices are TradingView closes for the Nov 13 session, retrieved Nov 15. Price-path checks and the hypothetical scorecard use dated CBOE daily bars via Fintel (Nov 6–13). FRED yields and spreads run through Nov 12.
The core question is unchanged: do AI-investment, rates and consumer-credit risks create attractive conditional shorts while selected recovery longs offer asymmetric setups? This week the evidence shifted toward rates. Treasury yields rose sharply while junk-bond spreads tightened, and AI-funding signals were mixed. These remain competing hypotheses, not established outcomes.
Hypothetical scoring of the Nov 8 plan rules against public CBOE daily bars via Fintel (Nov 6 and Nov 13 closes, Nov 9–13 highs and lows). Not executed trades or verified returns. “Week move” is the Nov 6 → Nov 13 close change in the thesis direction, divided by the distance from zone midpoint to original stop (one risk unit), whether or not the zone was reached. “Mark if midpoint reached” applies only when a Nov 9–13 bar's range included the zone midpoint, and marks that hypothetical entry to the Nov 13 close. Grades use week move: A ≥ +0.5, B +0.2 to +0.5, C −0.2 to +0.2, D −0.6 to −0.2, F below −0.6. Daily bars cannot establish intraday sequence.
| Ticker | Side | Nov 6 → Nov 13 close | Move for thesis | Zone traded into | Midpoint reached | Stop level crossed | Target level crossed | Week move | Mark if midpoint reached | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | short | $129.43 → $115.81 | +10.5% | Nov 11 (lower edge only, high $160.21) | No | No | T1 $115 crossed Nov 13 (low $109.00) | +0.57R | — | A |
| CACC | short | $529.47 → $503.58 | +4.9% | Nov 9–13 | Nov 11 | No (Nov 9 high $540.01) | No | +0.69R | +0.10R | A |
| STZ | long | $141.95 → $145.59 | +2.6% | No | No | No | No | +0.29R | — | B |
| HYG | short | $77.24 → $76.94 | +0.4% | Nov 9–11 | Nov 10 | No | No | +0.29R | +0.30R | B |
| NVO | long | $40.30 → $41.65 | +3.3% | No | No | No | No | +0.27R | — | B |
| KRE | short | $72.22 → $72.75 | −0.7% | Nov 9–13 | Nov 9 | No | No | −0.15R | +0.07R | C |
| SYF | long | $73.77 → $72.24 | −2.1% | Nov 9–13 | Nov 9 | No | No | −0.19R | +0.03R | C |
| LULU | long | $110.75 → $105.62 | −4.6% | Nov 11–13 | No | No | No | −0.37R | — | D |
| SMH | short | $463.99 → $486.63 | −4.9% | Nov 11–12 | Nov 11 | No | No | −0.65R | +0.52R | F |
| SQM | long | $57.48 → $53.59 | −6.8% | Nov 9–13 | No | No | No | −0.65R | — | F |
| CRWV | short | $46.36 → $53.11 | −14.6% | Nov 11–12 (Nov 11 open $55.97, high $62.03) | Nov 11 | No | No | −0.75R | +0.43R | F |
| META | short | $610.12 → $641.99 | −5.2% | Nov 9–11 (high $648.45) | No | No | No | −0.75R | — | F |
| ORCL | short | $116.05 → $125.37 | −8.0% | Nov 11–13 | Nov 11 | No | No | −1.17R | +0.08R | F |
Rule-based tally for the 13 plans live on Nov 8: 5 of 13 moved in the thesis direction. Grades: 2 A, 3 B, 2 C, 1 D, 5 F. Summed week move −2.56R (−0.20R per plan), mostly from the Nov 11 AI and semiconductor bounce against the CRWV, META, ORCL and SMH shorts. A zone midpoint was reached in 7 plans (CACC, HYG, KRE, SYF, SMH, CRWV, ORCL); no stop level was crossed this week. These are not trade results and are not added to any running total.
| Nov 8 watch item | Verdict | Evidence, Nov 6 → Nov 12/13 |
|---|---|---|
| AI financing | Mixed | CoreWeave beat and ruled out more unsecured debt; stock +14.6%. Nebius cut its revenue outlook; stock −10.5%. Nvidia's CEO resigned Nov 12; stock −14.8% on the week (CNBC). |
| Credit-spread transmission | Not confirmed | HY 342 → 320bp, CCC 1,317 → 1,314bp, IG 93 → 89bp (FRED). The caveat that spreads do not map one-for-one to HYG held: HYG fell on rates. |
| Rates and inflation | Confirmed | CPI +0.4% (core +0.3%); 10-year 4.86% → 5.10% (FRED, Nov 6 → Nov 12). |
| Consumer credit | Partly confirmed | NY Fed Q3: delinquency 5.0% (+0.3 pt); mortgage and auto flows worse, cards better. CACC −4.9%, SYF −2.1%. |
| Private credit, CRE and housing | No re-escalation | BIZD $12.49, XHB $102.10 at Nov 13 close; no re-entry trigger hit. |
CBOE adjusted daily bars via Fintel, dated through Nov 13, 2026. Levels are retained from the earlier tracker; the observations below do not certify when those levels were originally published.
| Ticker | Date (ET) | Observed price path | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | Nov 11 / Nov 13 | High $160.21 touched the old $160–172 zone's lower edge; low $109.00 crossed old T1 $115; old stop $190 not approached | Price events only; no fill, exit or R. Old plan retired and replaced by a revised bounce-only plan |
| CRWV | Nov 11 | Opened $55.97 inside the $54–60 zone and traded to $62.03; stop $66 not reached | Archived on thesis invalidation (funding access improved), not a price stop; no result assigned |
| ORCL | Nov 11 | Range $124.15–130.77 crossed the whole $123–129 zone; stop $134 not reached | Zone traded through; no fill asserted |
| SMH | Nov 11 | Range $496.01–516.65 crossed the whole $495–515 zone; stop $540 not reached | Zone traded through; no fill asserted |
| META | Nov 9–11 | Highs $647.25 / $647.28 / $648.45 entered the $645–670 zone; midpoint $657.50 not reached | Zone touched at its lower part only |
| CACC | Nov 9 | High $540.01, $4.99 below the $545 stop, while above the zone | Near-stop price event, not a stop breach |
| PLTR | Nov 2 / Nov 5 | Lows $178.13 / $152.60 crossed listed T1 $180 / T2 $160 | Target levels crossed; no verified entry or exit, no R assigned |
| NBIS | Nov 5 | Low $113.30 crossed listed T1 $115; T2 $100 not reached that week | Target level crossed; no verified entry or partial exit |
| CRWV | Nov 5 | Low $40.58 remained above listed T1 $39 | T1 not reached; no open P&L assigned |
| ORCL | Nov 2–6 | Week high $129.85 was below old entry zone $134–142 | Old zone not reached that week; subsequent decline is not a trade win |
| BIZD | Nov 2 | High $12.59 crossed listed short stop $12.55 | Archived as stop-level breach, not a verified −1R fill |
| XHB | Nov 2 | High $104.90 crossed listed short stop $104 | Archived as stop-level breach, not a verified −1R fill |
Verified here means a dated bar crossed the listed level. It does not verify that an actionable entry existed first, that an order was placed, or that a target or stop executed. Daily OHLC bars cannot establish intraday sequence. No historical R or open mark-to-market is reported outside the clearly labelled hypothetical scorecard.
| Ticker / side | Reference (Nov 13) | Entry zone | Original stop | T1 | T2 | Horizon | T2 reward/risk across zone | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS (new) / short | $115.88 | $135.00–$145.00 | $160.00 | $100.00 | $80.00 | Swing | 2.20–4.33R | Pass |
| META / short | $641.69 | $645.00–$670.00 | $700.00 | $565.00 | $520.00 | Position | 2.27–5.00R | Pass |
| ORCL / short | $125.35 | $123.00–$129.00 | $134.00 | $110.00 | $102.00 | Swing / position | 1.91–5.40R | Fails at worst edge |
| CACC / short | $504.63 | $495.00–$520.00 | $545.00 | $432.50 | $402.00 | Swing / position | 1.86–4.72R | Fails at worst edge |
| SMH / short | $486.75 | $495.00–$515.00 | $540.00 | $435.00 | $400.00 | Swing | 2.11–4.60R | Pass |
| HD (new) / short | $348.69 | $352.00–$362.00 | $372.00 | $324.00 | $308.00 | Swing | 2.20–5.40R | Pass |
| Ticker | Reference vs zone | Nov 9–13 price path | Thesis and catalysts | Condition | Invalidation (wrong if) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS (new) | Below zone | New plan; below zone. Nov 11 bar reached $160.21, then Nov 12–13 bars fell to a $109.00 low (Nov 13). No entry is scored under the old plan. | Hypothesis: AI demand is not converting into funded capacity and cash flow fast enough. Nebius's Q3 release (Nov 12) guided 2026 revenue to the low end of $3.0–3.4B on third-party capacity delays, and CNBC reported 2027 capex guidance of $40–45B. | Revised bounce-only plan, not a retroactive trade. Replaces the old $160–172 / stop $190 plan, whose zone was touched only at its lower edge (Nov 11 high $160.21). Do not short into weakness ~40% below the Nov 11 high. | Original stop for this revised plan $160. Wrong if prepayments or other non-dilutive funding cover the 2027 capex plan, or price reclaims $160. |
| META | Below zone | Bars traded into the lower part of the zone on Nov 9 (high $647.25), Nov 10 ($647.28) and Nov 11 ($648.45); the $657.50 midpoint was not reached. Stop $700 not approached. | Conditional capex-versus-cash-generation short, not a claim that META's own free cash flow is negative. Nvidia results (Nov 17, confirmed) and the Anthropic IPO (price range $70–78 per TechCrunch) are tests of AI risk appetite. | Just below the entry zone. Historical midpoint-fill and return claims remain removed; no trailing stop is applied. | Original price stop $700; stronger cash generation relative to investment weakens the thesis. |
| ORCL | Within zone | Nov 11 bar ($124.15–130.77) traded through the whole zone and above its $129 top, $3.23 below the $134 stop. Nov 12–13 bars stayed around the zone; Nov 13 close inside it. | Watch the financing cost and cash conversion of AI infrastructure commitments. | Revised bounce-only plan, not a retroactive trade. The lower part of the zone fails the entry-quality gate; only the upper part offers 2R to T2. | Original stop for this revised plan $134; easing financing pressure weakens the thesis. |
| CACC | Within zone | Nov 9 high $540.01 came within $4.99 of the $545 stop while price was above the zone. Bars traded back into the zone Nov 10–13 (Nov 13 low $498.75); Nov 13 close inside it. | Consumer-credit stress is a hypothesis to test against collections and delinquency data, not an established explanation for the stock move. NY Fed Q3 (Nov 10): 5.0% of household debt delinquent (+0.3 pt); auto flow into serious delinquency 3.02% versus 2.99% a year earlier. | Within zone, but the lower part of the zone fails the entry-quality gate. Equity only: the option chain was too wide and thinly traded to use as an expression. | Original price stop $545; stabilizing collections weaken the thesis. |
| SMH | Below zone | Nov 11 bar ($496.01–516.65) traded through the whole zone and above its $515 top, $23.35 below the $540 stop. Closed $486.75 Nov 13, below the zone. | Conditional semiconductor bounce-short tied to AI investment and funding risk; not a short-at-market call. Nvidia reports Nov 17 after the close, its first report since CEO Jensen Huang's Nov 12 resignation (Reuters, CNBC). | Below zone. Do not chase weakness; only a bounce back into $495–515 qualifies. | Original price stop $540; stronger semiconductor demand and sustained price recovery weaken the thesis. |
| HD (new) | Below zone | New plan; below zone. Week range $343.26–356.90 (Nov 9 high $356.90 traded into what is now the zone, before the plan existed). | Hypothesis: the ~19% one-month rally priced in falling mortgage rates that have since reversed (10-year Treasury 5.10% on Nov 12, FRED). Short only a post-earnings pop into $352–362; skip if it gaps down. | Zone set at $352 (not $350) so its least favorable edge still offers 2R to T2. An earnings date listed on some calendars was not independently confirmed and is omitted here. | Original price stop $372, above the $362.44 one-month high. Wrong if comparable sales turn positive with raised guidance and yields fall. |
| Ticker / side | Reference (Nov 13) | Entry zone | Original stop | T1 | T2 | Horizon | T2 reward/risk across zone | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYF / long | $72.25 | $70.00–$74.00 | $64.00 | $88.00 | $92.00 | Swing / position | 1.80–3.67R | Fails at worst edge |
| NVO / long | $41.63 | $37.00–$40.00 | $33.50 | $48.50 | $52.00 | Swing | 1.85–4.29R | Fails at worst edge |
| STZ / long | $145.61 | $133.00–$140.00 | $124.00 | $163.00 | $170.00 | Position | 1.88–4.11R | Fails at worst edge |
| SQM / long | $53.61 | $54.00–$58.00 | $50.00 | $68.00 | $74.00 | Swing / position | 2.00–5.00R | Pass |
| LULU / long | $105.65 | $100.00–$107.00 | $89.50 | $131.50 | $145.50 | Position | 2.20–4.33R | Pass |
| FIS (new) / long | $29.54 | $28.00–$29.50 | $26.40 | $34.20 | $36.80 | Position | 2.35–5.50R | Pass |
| Ticker | Reference vs zone | Nov 9–13 price path | Thesis and catalysts | Condition | Invalidation (wrong if) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYF | Within zone | Within zone all week; Nov 9 low $69.87 dipped $0.13 below the zone. Stop $64 not approached. | Consumer-credit resilience is the bullish thesis. NY Fed Q3: card flow into serious delinquency 6.87% versus 7.05% a year earlier. October retail sales print Nov 17. | Within zone, but the top of the zone does not offer 2R to T2. Apply the entry-quality gate. | Original price stop $64; worsening losses or collections weaken the thesis. |
| NVO | Above zone | Did not trade into the zone Nov 9–13 (week low $40.08 on Nov 12). | Conditional recovery thesis based on execution, product demand and guidance. | Above zone; do not chase. The upper end of the zone does not offer 2R to T2. | Original price stop $33.50; weaker guidance or demand weakens the thesis. |
| STZ | Above zone | Did not trade into the zone Nov 9–13 (week low $142.21, high $147.00). | Cash-generation and capital-return recovery thesis; valuation yields are not asserted without verification. | Above zone; wait. The upper end of the zone does not offer 2R to T2. | Original price stop $124; deterioration in cash-flow outlook weakens the thesis. |
| SQM | Below zone | Bars traded inside the zone Nov 9–12 without reaching the $56 midpoint; Nov 13 close $53.61 below the zone (low $52.98, $2.98 above the stop). | Conditional lithium-cycle recovery thesis; commodity weakness can invalidate the case. Q3 results Nov 17 around 8 PM ET per TradingView (confirmed). | Just below zone. Do not add ahead of the Nov 17 print; a quoted price near a zone does not establish an entry. | Original price stop $50; sustained lithium-price deterioration weakens the thesis. |
| LULU | Within zone | Bars traded into the zone Nov 11–13 (low $104.03 on Nov 12); the $103.50 midpoint was not reached. | Conditional operating-turnaround thesis; require evidence from demand, margins and guidance. | Within zone. Midpoint-fill performance remains removed. | Original price stop $89.50; worsening comparable sales or margins weaken the thesis. |
| FIS (new) | Above zone | New plan; $0.04 above zone at the Nov 13 close. Week range $27.93–30.50. | Deep-value hypothesis: the stock fell 23.7% on Nov 4 after the company cut 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.82–5.89 (from $6.15–6.24) and announced a CFO departure. About 5x guided EPS at the Nov 13 reference price. | Zone capped at $29.50 so its least favorable edge offers 2R to T2. Base at $27.93–30.50 since the gap. | Original price stop $26.40. Wrong if guidance is cut again or the dividend is cut. |
| Ticker / side | Reference (Nov 13) | Entry zone | Original stop | T1 | T2 | Horizon | T2 reward/risk across zone | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT (new) / short | $79.38 | $79.00–$80.50 | $82.50 | $74.25 | $71.50 | Position (to Jan) | 2.14–4.50R | Pass |
| HYG / short | $76.94 | $77.00–$77.50 | $78.30 | $75.00 | $73.90 | Swing short | 2.38–4.50R | Pass |
| KRE / short | $72.74 | $72.00–$74.00 | $76.50 | $66.00 | $62.50 | Swing short | 2.11–4.60R | Pass |
| Ticker | Reference vs zone | Nov 9–13 price path | Thesis and catalysts | Condition | Invalidation (wrong if) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT (new) | Within zone | New plan; within zone. Bars traded into the zone Nov 12 (low $79.72) and Nov 13 ($79.11–79.64). | Hypothesis: long-end supply plus a hawkish Fed keep pushing yields up. 10-year 4.86% → 5.10% and 30-year 5.26% → 5.43% (FRED, Nov 6 → Nov 12). Next tests: 20-year auction Nov 18, 5- and 7-year auctions Nov 24–25, and PCE on Nov 25. | Within zone. A rates thesis is not a TLT total-return forecast; distributions and curve shape matter. | Original price stop $82.50, above the $82.42 one-month high. Wrong if the Fed signals it will skip December or the 10-year falls back under 4.90%. |
| HYG | Below zone | Bars traded inside the zone Nov 9–11 (Nov 9 high $77.55, $0.05 above the zone top); Nov 13 close below it. Stop $78.30 not approached. | Credit-spread widening was the bearish hypothesis, but spreads tightened (HY 342 → 320bp, Nov 6 → Nov 12, FRED). HYG fell anyway because Treasury yields rose, so the position now depends on rates, not credit. | Just below zone. Thesis has drifted to rates; it overlaps with TLT and KRE and is not an independent bet. | Original price stop $78.30; sustained spread tightening with falling yields weakens the thesis. |
| KRE | Within zone | Within zone all week; Nov 9 high $74.08 ($0.08 above the zone top). Stop $76.50 not approached. | Conditional regional-bank short on funding, credit and commercial-real-estate risk. NY Fed Q3: mortgage flow into serious delinquency 1.60% versus 1.28% a year earlier (household mortgages, not CRE). | Within zone. Rates can help or hurt banks depending on funding costs and asset repricing. | Original price stop $76.50; improving funding and credit quality weaken the thesis. |
Entry-quality gate: consider a setup only if the actual planned entry inside its zone offers at least 2R to T2 using the original stop, before costs. ORCL, CACC, SYF, NVO, STZ fail that test at the least favorable edge of their zones; only the better part of those zones qualifies. T1 is an intermediate objective and need not offer 2R. Taking a partial exit at T1 lowers the blended payoff. Do not adjust a target merely to manufacture a ratio.
R means the planned underlying-price gain divided by the distance from entry to original stop. It is not expected return or probability of success. Gaps, borrow costs, fees and slippage can exceed planned risk; a stop price is not a guaranteed execution. Swing means days to weeks; position means weeks to months, subject to invalidation. Zones are research plans, not claimed fills. No revised trailing stop is applied retroactively.
| Setup type | Conditional expression | Required checks |
|---|---|---|
| Equity and macro shorts | A put debit spread may define premium risk if a sufficiently liquid chain exists | Verify both legs, expiry after the intended holding window, live bid/ask, open interest, event timing and net debit at the underlying entry |
| Equity longs | A call debit spread may define premium risk if a sufficiently liquid chain exists | Use the same expiry on both legs; verify liquidity, exercise/assignment exposure and realistic executable pricing |
| Any thin or wide market | Skip the option expression rather than rely on an attractive midpoint | A theoretical mark is not a fill; do not assume the spread can be entered or exited near its midpoint. CACC and SQM had no usable expression when last checked. |
No contract expiry, strike pair, premium, implied volatility or open-interest figure is published here. Earlier dated midpoint illustrations have been omitted because they are not executable quotes and would need to be re-quoted on a live chain at the underlying entry. These structures are conditional alternatives, not additional trade ideas. Debit spreads can lose the entire premium; early assignment and expiration handling create additional operational risk. A spread's maximum profit/debit ratio is not the underlying setup's R and is not expected return.
10-year 5.10%, 30-year 5.43% (FRED, Nov 12); TradingView quoted the 10-year near 5.14% on Nov 13 (FRED value not yet published). The Oct 28 statement held the target at 3.75%–4.00% with two voters preferring a hike. Escalates if: the 10-year closes above 5.15% on FRED, then 5.30%; the 30-year closes above 5.50%; the Nov 18 20-year or Nov 24–25 5- and 7-year auctions tail by 1bp or more; core PCE (Nov 25) prints 0.4% or higher. De-escalates if the 10-year returns under 4.90%. Related plans: TLT, KRE, HD, HYG (not independent bets).
Mixed week: CoreWeave's funding stance improved while Nebius raised capex and cut its revenue outlook, and Nvidia's CEO resigned. Escalates if: NVDA closes below its $148.80 one-month low after Nov 17 results or cuts guidance; the Anthropic IPO prices below its $70–78 range or trades under the offer price; NBIS breaks $109. De-escalates if Nvidia guides up and the IPO trades well. Related plans: SMH, META, ORCL, NBIS.
NY Fed Q3 (Nov 10): household debt $19.1T; 5.0% delinquent (+0.3 pt); flow into serious delinquency 1.60% for mortgages (1.28% a year earlier), 3.02% for autos (2.99%), 6.87% for cards (7.05%). Escalates if: October retail sales (Nov 17) are negative; final UMich sentiment (Nov 20) is under 50; CACC closes below $498.75; SYF closes below $69.87; HY spreads return above 348bp. A CACC short and SYF long are different company theses, not a calibrated hedge.
HY 320bp, CCC 1,314bp, IG 89bp (FRED, Nov 12). Re-escalates if HY rises above 348bp (Nov 5), CCC above 1,356bp, or IG above 100bp.
BIZD and XHB remain archived after Nov 2 stop-level breaches. Non-listed BDC net outflows above $4B in Q3 (Stanger) are a background signal, not a trigger. Re-escalates if BIZD breaks $11.73 or another listed BDC cuts its dividend. Housing exposure is now expressed only through the conditional HD plan.
All times Eastern Time (ET). Economic dates are from the TradingView economic calendar and the BLS schedule; company dates are included only when marked confirmed on TradingView or on a primary calendar. Unconfirmed earnings dates have been omitted. Consensus figures are not asserted.
| Date | Time (ET) | Event | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16 | 8:30 AM | Empire State manufacturing survey; 3- and 6-month bill auctions | TradingView economic calendar |
| Nov 17 | 8:30 AM | October retail sales; BLS import and export prices; industrial production; NAHB index | Import prices on BLS schedule (checked Nov 8) |
| Nov 17 | After close / 5:00 PM call | Nvidia Q3 results (SMH, META, crack #2) | Confirmed per TradingView |
| Nov 17 | ~8:00 PM | SQM Q3 results | Confirmed per TradingView |
| Nov 18 | Morning / 1:00 PM / 2:00 PM | Housing starts and permits; 20-year bond auction; FOMC minutes (Oct 27–28 meeting) | Economic and Treasury calendar; FOMC minutes |
| Nov 18 | After close | Palo Alto Networks (PANW) results | Confirmed per TradingView |
| Nov 19 | 8:30 AM | Jobless claims; Philly Fed; 10-year TIPS auction | TradingView economic calendar |
| Nov 20 | 10:00 AM | Final University of Michigan sentiment; BLS state employment and unemployment; monthly options expiration | State employment on BLS schedule (checked Nov 8) |
| Nov 23 | Various | S&P Global flash PMIs; 2-year note auction | Holiday-shortened week |
| Nov 24 | Various | Case-Shiller home prices; Conference Board confidence; 5-year note auction; Dell results after the close | DELL is the next AI-server read, per TradingView |
| Nov 25 | 8:30 AM / 10:00 AM | October PCE, personal income and spending; Q3 GDP second estimate; durable goods; new home sales; 7-year note auction | Last major inflation print before the Dec 8–9 FOMC |
| Nov 26 | Closed | Thanksgiving: US stock and bond markets closed | |
| Dec 8–9 | Two-day meeting | Scheduled FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve calendar |
This is a focused catalyst list for the research, not a complete market calendar. Fed speaker schedules for Nov 16–27 were not verified and are omitted. Other unconfirmed company dates are omitted.
Closed or retired plans. Entries record price observations and the reason for archiving; none is a verified fill or result.
CoreWeave's Q3 release (Nov 10) raised 2026 guidance and said it will not issue more unsecured debt, meeting the 'improving funding access' invalidation. Price stop not reached: the Nov 11 bar opened $55.97 inside the zone and traded to $62.03. Nov 13 close $53.13 (TradingView). No re-entry unless new funding stress appears and price fails back under $45.
The zone was touched only at its lower edge (Nov 11 high $160.21); Nov 13 low $109.00 crossed the old $115 T1. No entry, exit or R is assigned. Replaced by the revised $135–145 bounce-only plan.
Lows $178.13 (Nov 2) and $152.60 (Nov 5). No verified entry or exit; no R assigned. Nov 13 close $167.98. No new plan.
High $12.59. Archived as a stop-level breach, not a verified −1R fill. Nov 13 close $12.49. No re-entry unless it breaks $11.73.
High $104.90. Archived as a stop-level breach, not a verified −1R fill. Nov 13 close $102.10. Housing exposure is now the conditional HD plan.
An earlier stop claim exists in prior versions; it is not scored here.
USD prices in the setup table are TradingView closes for the Nov 13 session, retrieved Nov 15. Price-path checks and the scorecard use dated CBOE adjusted daily bars via Fintel for Nov 6–13. These are not live quotes. The two sources differ by a few cents on some closes; they are not mixed in one calculation.
Week move scores every plan the same way, whether or not its zone was reached. The midpoint mark applies a mechanical rule (a daily bar's range included the zone midpoint) and is not an execution record: daily bars cannot show whether the midpoint traded before or after the bar's other extreme, and gaps, fees, borrow and slippage are ignored. Scorecard values are not accumulated across weeks.
Entry zones, original stops and targets are retained planning levels. Original publication timing, order eligibility and execution have not been independently established. No realized result, open P&L, average R or hit rate is reported.
Company, capex, rates, consumer-credit and CRE narratives are framed as hypotheses. Items previously labelled secondary or unverified — including CDS levels, FedWatch probabilities, auction-tail details, Nvidia receivables and financing reports, TradingView valuation fields, and unconfirmed earnings dates — have been omitted from this public version.
This report is educational hypothetical research, not personalized investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation that any reader take a position. No account information or actual brokerage performance is included. Readers must independently verify prices, risks, suitability and release schedules.
Market-data links identify the providers, not a reproducible execution record. The dated bar observations and source distinctions are specified above. FRED series links are provided for readers to inspect the source.